BY the timetable released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the parties have up to January 15 to submit the names of their flag bearers for the presidential race. How do the aspirants stand? What strategies have the parties and aspirants adopted to tilt victory in one direction or the other? The tactics and strategies are examined in this analysis.
ALL middle distance and long distance runners realise that the last curve is the most difficult part. As decision day approaches in all the political parties fielding candidates for the presidential election, passions are being excited and new alliances are being struck by caucuses.
In the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is embroiled in a bitter row involving the two main aspirants- President Goodluck Jonathan and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, a former Vice-President. The two aspirants are desperate to obtain the support of delegates and are throwing everything into the “war”. Their supporters, it appears, are even more desperate. And, the latest weapons that they are employing for the task at hand are the law courts.
In the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) which is now the main opposition party, four aspirants have appeared on the radar. There are contenders and there are pretenders. One of the main contenders is Mallam Nuhu Ribadu. He was drafted into the race when it was realised that the people look forward to a candidate who can appeal to the young elements and is seen as a symbol of progressive struggle in the country.
Ribadu drew a large support in the progressive camp across the country when the late President Umaru Yar’Adua and his men chose to frustrate him. He was suddenly redeployed from the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), demoted from the rank of Assistant Inspector General of Police to a Deputy Commissioner of Police and sent to the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS). It was seen as undue punishment for steadfast prosecution of the anti-corruption war. He is in the race for real.
There is also Alhaji Attahiru Bafarawa, a former governor of Sokoto State. He was, at a time, seen as a cult figure in the Sokoto axis of the Northwest. He has been working on the political field for more than three decades and thus understands the terrain very well. The calculation by his supporters is that he has quantifiable contribution to make to the party’s bid, politically and financially.
The new entrant is Dr. Usman Bugaje who until last Tuesday was the national secretary of the party. He won the hearts of many leaders of the ACN with his adroit support for the cause and refusal to join the crowd out when those who moved in from the PDP chose last year to return to their natural habitat. He is deemed intelligent and suave. His late entry has made it difficult to estimate the status of his bid. Till date, not many people know he has a presidential ambition. This could count against him in appealing for delegates’ support.
However, having been in the party for much longer than any of the others, he might not find t too difficult to win the confidence of those who have influence on the delegates from the various zones.
The least known of the ACN presidential aspirants is Mallam Saidu Malami. Not much is known about the name, face and antecedents. He is generally regarded as one making up the numbers and it is very unlikely that the bis would attract serious attention.
The All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) was once a vibrant political party. It went, as All Peoples party (APP), into the 1999 presidential election in a pact with the Alliance for Democracy (AD). Although the AD provided the candidate while ANPP supplied the running mate, the ANPP which was much stronger in the North was regarded as the senior partner. The party won the governorship race in nine of the 19 states of the North and had strong showing in parts of the other Northern, Southsouth and Southeast states.
The situation has since changes as the party has steadily rolled down the hill. From the height of nine states that it controlled in 1999, it shrunk to seven in 2003 and then five in the 2007 governorship poll. It has since lost two m ore and has little or no presence in any of the Southern states. It has also been eclipsed from the Northcentral zone. It ios now a shadow of itself, controlling only two states in the Northeast and one in the Northwest, a zone where it was considered the king in 1999.
However, the battle for its ticket promises some thrills. On the cards are Governor Ibrahim Shekarau of Kano State, Alhaji Bashir Tofa who contended against the late Chief Moshood Abiola in the 1993 race and Chief Harry Akande. The frontrunner appears to be the Kano governor. Chief Akande just joined the race after he had lost the chairmanship bid.
As Shekarau admitted, Akande was the anointed candidate for leadership of the party until the powers that be chose to lean towards Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu. The decision did not go down well with Akande who saw it all a betrayal. A multibillionaire, Akande’s late entry into the race is seen as a bid to pay Shekarau back with his own coin. Who picks the ANPP ticket? This remains shrouded in mystery as the guidelines for decision making is yet to be unfolded.
Historically, the party is known to follow the path of resistance. In 2003 and 2007, other aspirants were prevailed upon to step down for General Muhammadu Buhari. It is unlikely, given the adoption of the same method in picking the chairman recently that all the aspirants would be made to go through the tortuous but more democratic path of primary election.
The Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) is all about General Muhammadu Buhari. It was largely unknown and just one of those parties that made up the numbers until the former Head of State headed in that direction earlier this year. Buhari’s membership has since changed the fortunes and outlook of the party. The party has two major factors working for it. One, the Buhari factor. The retired general is now a veteran of presidential election battles. He is not new to the game and is familiar with the buttons to press at different times.
Two, he is generally well regarded as a principles man, one who would not betray the country at a time like this. He is also seen as particularly popular in the North. This has also informed on-going negotiation with other political parties that have realised that a combination of strength is required to dethrone a ruling party. In the event that works even at this eleventh hour, Buhari is likely to be the consensus candidate. Sources close to the alliance talks indicate that it had been difficult to come to terms because no party is willing to make the critical concession. It remains to be seen if things could be sorted out in the next few days even as the INEC clock is ticking.
The CPC candidacy is not expected to generate ripples unlike the case in the other three parties. It was formed to realise the presidential ambition of Buhari and no one has the courage to contend with him. The crises in the party are in respect of gubernatorial contests in some of the Northern states. The general is not known to be a diplomat and the party lacks structure, organs and history that could have helped it in such a testy time. There are fears that, unless the alliance talks succeed, some of the ambitious aspirants may move over to other parties within the next two weeks.
In all across the four major political parties, there are 10 aspirants contending for the tickets. How far they can move, what factors would decide the ultimate contenders and where the pendulum finally swings will be decided by the quality of the candidates that emerge, the fate of the alliance talks and ability of the parties to sooth frayed nerves by pacifying losers in the primaries.
Politics of ruling party’s ticket
Many members of the PDP believe the prophesy by the party’s former national chairman, Prince Vincent Ogbulafor who said it would rule the country for 60 years. Many have equally come to accept that it is the largest political party in Africa even when there is no empirical evidence to support the assertion.
It is therefore not surprising that most of the members of the party believe that obtaining the presidential ticket of the PDP is as good as winning the election. A senior member of the party told The Nation that the leaders are banking on the division in the ranks of the opposition and believe that it would pave the way for the success of the PDP at the polls.
Besides, elections and electioneering gulp so much money that only those in government are likely to have enough resources to prosecute electoral battles. Apart from controlling the government at the centre, the PDP also sits atop governments in 27 of the 36 states.
However, this has made the battle for the ticket fiercest and the fabric is almost being torn. Things are falling irretrievably apart and the bile in the run up to the primary is more than should be expected in inter-party contest.
Following the marathon meetings of Wednesday December 15 and Thursday December 16 that culminated in the endorsement of President Goodluck Jonathan as presidential candidate by 20 of the 36 governors, his hands have been strengthened such that it could be argued that the battle is already won and lost.
The president has gone ahead to visit the zones to reap concurrent approval of the delegates to the national convention.
But, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar has not given up. He is still in the race and has also been making contacts across the country. As he reacted after the story of the endorsement by the governors broke out, the political general believes that it is not over until the votes are cast and counted. He has been making frightening comments that many have dubbed inflammatory and evidence of desperation. Those who are not so charitable say that his pronouncements represent admission that the battle is lost. This may not really be so.
He has also been keeping his focus on issues and programmes. While he has been throwing punches, sometimes wildly, he has equally called attention to the areas of need of the country in respect of power, education, employment and general administration. Alhaji Abubakar last week called attention to those areas in which he considered the 2011 fiscal plan defective.
His advocacy has kept leaders of the party on their toes. During the past week, he told the public that the failure of the party to come up with the composition of the presidential aspirants’ screening panel and the mode of the primaries called for concern. He wondered why the aspirants were being kept in the dark on whether the primary would be direct or indirect, in the states or centrally at Abuja. His view was that the mode could affect the strategies that would be adopted by each aspirant, and when such vital information are not made available to the stakeholders on time, they could derail plans.
The party is yet to respond officially. The former Vice-President said that the National Executive Committee (NEC) had already met at its 55th session to take all decisions related to the primaries; yet the leadership appears to be dithering.
As the aspirants race towards the mark, more broadsides and missiles should be expected. At the time of writing this, President Jonathan was still galloping ahead of his main opponent. Working in his favour as presidential influence has been deployed subtly for the battle in recent times is the power of incumbency. Presidential aides have consistently maintained that, in countries that practice the presidential system, the chief executive has the Right of First Refusal in an election year where he is eligible and untainted by proven allegations of corrupt practices. He may fail at the poll, but the ticket is usually his.
However, President Jonathan’s opponents have replied that the situation in a fledgling democracy like Nigeria is quite different. They contend that conventions and traditions are just evolving and care must be taken not to throw away honour. In reference to the said agreement on zoning, the opponents of the president said that zoning is an active principle that should not be ditched at the altar of convenience.
Courts called to action
Signs that the judiciary will be kept busy in the next three weeks have already appeared. Due to the desperation on the scene, supporters of both the president and his main opponent in the battle for the party’s ticket have factored in the courts into their game plans. On the one hand, Alhaji Yahaya Kwande, Alhaji Lawal Kaita and Mr. Dubem Onyia, close associates of Abubakar have approached an Abuja High Court to disqualify Jonathan from the race.
They prayed the court to restrain the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, from endorsing Jonathan’s bid. Joined in the suit are the PDP and its national chairman, Dr. Okwesilieze Nwodo. The court has fixed January 4 for hearing of the case.
In a swift reaction, two supporters of Jonathan’s bid have challenged the ambition and qualification of Abubakar before the Abuja High Court. Senator Abdullahi Karim and Dr. Bala Takaya, both known political activists and combatants from Adamawa State told the court that the former Vice-President had been indicted for corruption by the American senate and is thus ineligible for election.
The duo contended that “between 1969 and 1989, Atiku Abubakar rose to become the Deputy Director of Customs and was dismissed following the findings of a panel of inquiry that recommended his dismissal.
“In February 2010, the USA Senate Permanent Sub-Committee on Investigation Committee of Homeland Security and Government Affairs carried out investigation on the money laundering and other corrupt practices of some foreign officials in the USA in line with the strict moral code and integrity within which that country operates.
Senate findings
“Findings of the said Senate Committee showed clearly that Atiku Abubakar was the source of the over $440m brought into the USA over a period of eight years (2000-2008) through more than 30 accounts. The committee questioned the nature and source of Atiku’s wealth and also found that the allegation by the SEC that Ms Douglas received over $2 million in bribe payments from Siemens AG intended part for her husband cannot be dismissed.
“The report showed how Atiku along with his fourth wife, one Ms Jennifer Douglas Abubakar, an American citizen, engaged in acts which have thoroughly embarrassed Nigeria as a country
“That Atiku was invited by the Senate Committee for questioning but that he declined the invitation.
The aspirants, especially in the PDP, are preparing to hurl more missiles at each other. They are poring through books on strategies to identify the appropriate trick. To them, it seems, the end justifies the means.
This week will be crucial for all the parties. The ACN is yet to release the order of its primaries. The democratic process in ANPP is wrapped up in confusion and the final pronouncements on how the candidate of the PDP would emerge are yet to be made.
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